Socioeconomic Determinants of Divorce in Indonesian Islamic Family Law
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Abstract
This study examines the socioeconomic determinants of divorce rates across 34 provinces in Indonesia from 2019 to 2023, employing a two-way fixed-effects panel data regression model. The dependent variable is the provincial divorce rate per 1,000 married couples, drawn from Mahkamah Agung (Supreme Court) annual reports and Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Independent variables include the open unemployment rate, per-capita gross regional domestic product (GRDP), mean years of schooling, early marriage prevalence, and household internet (ICT) penetration. Results indicate that economic stress, early marriage, and ICT penetration are statistically significant positive predictors of divorce rates, whereas higher educational attainment is associated with reduced divorce incidence. The findings reveal that the current Compilation of Islamic Law (Kompilasi Hukum Islam, KHI) lacks adequate socioeconomic-sensitive legal mechanisms, particularly regarding cerai gugat (divorce petition filed by wives), which constitutes approximately 75 percent of national divorce cases. This study contributes empirical evidence to the Islamic family law reform discourse in Indonesia and provides actionable recommendations for policy revision in Religious Courts and legislative frameworks.
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